1. Introduction to Game Theory in Poker
When starting to play poker, understanding the basic principles is crucial. While many old-school players rely on intuition, this approach is no longer suitable in today's poker economy.
Firstly, we must learn the mathematical principles of game theory, such as pot odds, stack-to-pot ratios (SPR), equity, expected value (EV), minimum defense frequency (MDF), and equity realization. You don't need to be a mathematician or calculate everything at the table, but you should understand how the game mechanics work.
It's important to know the strength of your hand relative to the board and what strategy to adopt accordingly. For instance, committing chips with top pair and a weak kicker in a high SPR pot is often unwise. Conversely, folding a set due to a potential straight in a low SPR pot is typically incorrect. Understanding the appropriate actions requires intuition developed through studying critical hands.
2. Understanding Critical Hands
One of the quickest ways to become a good poker player is to learn about critical hands. In specific situations, which hands are suitable for committing chips? Which hands can be used for value betting? What hands should you continue with when facing a bet?
Beginners often misjudge these critical hands, especially overestimating medium-strength hands. So, the next time you study GTO strategy, make sure to identify these critical hands. Remembering the thresholds is easier than memorizing the entire range.
3. Playing the Entire Range
Beginners often fall into the trap of focusing too much on individual hand frequencies. The issue is that it's impossible to remember the frequencies for every situation, making this an inefficient training method.
A better approach is to step back and consider your entire range. Think about how to play your whole range correctly, balancing the right amount of bluffs and value hands. Even if your frequencies are off, the important aspect is having a well-constructed range. Check our YouTube channel for examples of range construction.
4. Winning More Pots Doesn't Equal Maximum Expected Value
Humans tend to remember losses more vividly than wins, leading to biases that encourage players to try winning pots immediately rather than using higher EV strategies. Sometimes, the best strategy might result in winning a big pot or losing a small one.
Consider a dice game: if you roll a 1-5, you pay me $10; if you roll a 6, I pay you $100. You lose $10 80% of the time but win $100 17% of the time. The EV of this game is high:
EV = (1/6 * $100 – 5/6 * $10) = +$8.33.
As you can see, winning more often doesn't mean maximizing EV. Sometimes you need to make high EV but low win frequency plays. You might check a weak made hand to let your opponent draw. Retrain your thinking to overcome these biases.
5. Stop Overestimating the Value of Big Hands
Many recreational players overestimate the value of big hands, leading to top-heavy ranges and frequent situations with reverse implied odds.
Implied odds are crucial in poker, especially when playing 100bb deep cash games. The ability to draw to the nuts and withstand multiple streets of aggression far outweighs the value of betting with dominated top pairs. Many beginners might be surprised to find GTO strategies suggesting folding hands like AJo to 3-bets while continuing with suited connectors or pocket pairs that have better implied odds.
Overplaying big pairs is a common mistake. These hands' actual value relative to the board is often lower. Psychological factors play a role: Ax seems like a magical hand that “deserves” chip rewards. Top pair with a strong kicker shouldn't get outdrawn again. Two pair shouldn't be folded, even when all draws hit, and the opponent checks the river. Such behaviors typically limit the value of premium hands, reducing them to just a pair.
6. Most of Your Expected Value Comes from Your Nut Hands
Nut hands account for a significant portion of your EV, especially with deeper stacks. Most hands are close to break-even, so knowing how to play your nut hands correctly is vital.
In the following chart, we see the EV of folding hands in a 100bb cash game from the big blind. The big blind opens with 42% of hands, half of which have long-term profitability of less than 0.1bb.
The same applies post-flop. Most EV comes from a small portion of your range, so mastering nut hands is crucial.
7. Start by Mastering Your Pre-flop Strategy
Mastering pre-flop strategy is the quickest and most effective way to improve your results significantly. Playing well pre-flop helps you play better post-flop. Everything starts pre-flop. We provide ready-made pre-flop strategies, and with GTO Wizard, you can hone your skills through various training modes.
Make your pre-flop strategy second nature. This allows you to confidently commit more chips, make fewer mistakes, and play better in later rounds.
8. All Your Insights Are Based on Lies
Almost all your insights are based on biased assumptions, which is unavoidable. Your understanding of correct strategy is distorted by the game itself, and your subconscious desire to avoid risk biases your strategy. When you look at solver strategies, your brain tries to rationalize them to fit your worldview rather than expanding your theory. This is human nature and requires training to overcome.
To grow as a poker player, you must discard old habits and broaden your perspective, especially if unfamiliar with solvers and optimal game theory. Challenge your assumptions and seek counterexamples to your theories. The goal is to broaden your thinking, not reinforce your current understanding.
9. Biases Are Beyond Human Conceptualization
Poker players often fall prey to the gambler's fallacy. Suppose we flip a coin, and it lands heads six times in a row. What's the probability of heads on the next flip?
If you're superstitious, you might think tails are due. But the truth is, the probability remains 50%. The seventh flip's probability of heads is the same as the first flip.
Over thousands of flips, heads and tails will roughly equal out, not because of some mystical balance, but due to the law of large numbers. Imagine flipping a coin 1,000 times with heads leading by six flips. That's 503 heads and 497 tails, reflecting the initial lead's expected value. It's 50.3% heads and 49.7% tails.
Now imagine flipping 100,000 times with heads still leading by six. That's 50.0003% heads and 49.9997% tails. While tails haven't caught up, luck seems almost even. This is the law of large numbers.
Similarly, bad luck doesn't mean the universe owes you anything. Poker's biases are beyond human conceptualization. Using a poker variance calculator, you'll find that it takes tens of thousands of hands to see significant statistical edges. We'll discuss poker variance calculators further in future articles.
10. Stop Overplaying Medium-Strength Hands
One of the most common mistakes among weak aggressive players is lacking a value range for medium showdown value hands.
These players often overextend and fear getting outdrawn, leaving them with two ranges: one for folding and one for going all-in.
They rarely win with marginal hands at showdown because they either bet aggressively to force folds or lose at showdown to a tighter range; their passive strategies almost always get dominated.
Overplaying medium-strength hands forces opponents to fold weaker hands while getting called by stronger ones, leading to inefficient equity management. This strategy only works against calling stations and is easily exploited.
Don't go all-in with made hands just because the board has draws. Develop a range of medium-strength hands with showdown value that can control the pot.
